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Skovshoved vs Brønshøj — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Skovshoved
Skovshoved
FT
3 – 0
Brønshøj
Brønshøj
9/23/20172nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 8Skovshoved IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Skovshoved40%
×Draw28%
Brønshøj33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skovshoved
1.27
Brønshøj
1.13

Skovshoved creates 12% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 17 away

creates per match

Skovshoved
1.08
Brønshøj
0.88

allows per match

Skovshoved
1.38
Brønshøj
1.47

finishing

Skovshoved+0.00on par
Brønshøj+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skovshoved ↓

Brønshøj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Skovshoved or draw
67%
Skovshoved or Brønshøj
72%
Draw or Brønshøj
60%

Winning margin

Skovshoved wins by 2+
18%
Brønshøj wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Skovshoved 1+ goals
72%
Skovshoved 2+ goals
36%
Skovshoved 3+ goals
14%
Brønshøj 1+ goals
68%
Brønshøj 2+ goals
31%
Brønshøj 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Skovshoved (draw refunded)
55%
Brønshøj (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skovshoved at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Brønshøj away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skovshoved attack 1.08 + Brønshøj defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Brønshøj attack 0.88 + Skovshoved defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Skovshoved scores more
40%
level
28%
Brønshøj scores more
33%

Skovshoved at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Skovshoved will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Skovshoved 3–0 Brønshøj

Skovshoved beat Brønshøj 3-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on September 23, 2017.

The match was played at Skovshoved IP in Klampenborg.