Brønshøj 1–1 Skovshoved: Result & Stats

Brønshøj

FT

1 – 1

Skovshoved

A. Lazarevic 70'

N. Jensen 44'

10/3/2020

League #123 · Group 2 - 6Tingbjerg Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Brønshøj59%

×Draw19%

Skovshoved22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrønshøjExpected goals in this matchSkovshoved

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.39

Brønshøj

2.37

Skovshoved

1.39

Brønshøj creates 71% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 15 away

2.20

creates per match

1.07

1.70

allows per match

2.53

creates per match

Brønshøj

2.20

Skovshoved

1.07

allows per match

Brønshøj

1.70

Skovshoved

2.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brønshøj+0.00on par

Skovshoved+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brønshøj ↓

Skovshoved →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Brønshøj or draw

78%

Brønshøj or Skovshoved

81%

Draw or Skovshoved

41%

Winning margin

Brønshøj wins by 2+

37%

Skovshoved wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Brønshøj 1+ goals

91%

Brønshøj 2+ goals

68%

Brønshøj 3+ goals

42%

Skovshoved 1+ goals

75%

Skovshoved 2+ goals

40%

Skovshoved 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Brønshøj (draw refunded)

73%

Skovshoved (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brønshøj at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Skovshoved away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brønshøj attack 2.20 + Skovshoved defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.37

Skovshoved attack 1.07 + Brønshøj defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Brønshøj scores more

59%

level

19%

Skovshoved scores more

22%

Brønshøj at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Brønshøj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

N. Jensen

70'

A. Lazarevic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff