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Skövde AIK vs Trelleborg — Ettan - Södra 2019

Skövde AIK
Skövde AIK
Preview
11:00
Trelleborg
Trelleborg
9/6/2026Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 20
Big match
49%
Trelleborg
model favours
27%24%49%

Skövde AIK score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Skövde AIK27%
×Draw24%
Trelleborg49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skövde AIK
1.21
Trelleborg
1.73

Trelleborg creates 43% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 7 away

creates per match

Skövde AIK
1.85
Trelleborg
2.29

allows per match

Skövde AIK
1.18
Trelleborg
0.57

finishing

Skövde AIK+0.00on par
Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skövde AIK ↓

Trelleborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Skövde AIK or draw
51%
Skövde AIK or Trelleborg
76%
Draw or Trelleborg
73%

Winning margin

Skövde AIK wins by 2+
11%
Trelleborg wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Skövde AIK 1+ goals
70%
Skövde AIK 2+ goals
34%
Skövde AIK 3+ goals
12%
Trelleborg 1+ goals
82%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
52%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Skövde AIK (draw refunded)
35%
Trelleborg (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skövde AIK at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skövde AIK attack 1.85 + Trelleborg defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.21

Trelleborg attack 2.29 + Skövde AIK defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Skövde AIK scores more
27%
level
24%
Trelleborg scores more
49%

Trelleborg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Trelleborg score first in only 27% of matches
  • Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings
  • Skövde AIK sit 12, Trelleborg 1 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
AIK
LDLWL
Trelleborg
DWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Skövde AIK host Trelleborg

September 6, 2026: Skövde AIK take on Trelleborg in Ettan - Södra. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.