Skövde AIK 1–2 Malmo FF: Result & Stats

Skövde AIK

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Malmo FF

2/24/2025

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Södermalms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Skövde AIK21%

×Draw22%

Malmo FF57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Skövde AIKExpected goals in this matchMalmo FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.97

Skövde AIK

1.12

Malmo FF

1.97

Malmo FF creates 76% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

1.67

creates per match

2.93

1.00

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Skövde AIK

1.67

Malmo FF

2.93

allows per match

Skövde AIK

1.00

Malmo FF

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skövde AIK+0.00on par

Malmo FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skövde AIK ↓

Malmo FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Skövde AIK or draw

43%

Skövde AIK or Malmo FF

78%

Draw or Malmo FF

79%

Winning margin

Skövde AIK wins by 2+

8%

Malmo FF wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Skövde AIK 1+ goals

67%

Skövde AIK 2+ goals

31%

Skövde AIK 3+ goals

10%

Malmo FF 1+ goals

86%

Malmo FF 2+ goals

58%

Malmo FF 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Skövde AIK (draw refunded)

27%

Malmo FF (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skövde AIK at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Malmo FF away — creates 2.93, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skövde AIK attack 1.67 + Malmo FF defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.12

Malmo FF attack 2.93 + Skövde AIK defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Skövde AIK scores more

21%

level

22%

Malmo FF scores more

57%

Malmo FF at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff