Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Skövde AIK vs Falkenbergs FF — Superettan 2026

Skövde AIK
Skövde AIK
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Falkenbergs FF
Falkenbergs FF
11/26/2023SuperettanSuperettan · Relegation RoundSödermalms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Skövde AIK40%
×Draw25%
Falkenbergs FF35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skövde AIK
1.47
Falkenbergs FF
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 54 away

creates per match

Skövde AIK
1.36
Falkenbergs FF
1.61

allows per match

Skövde AIK
1.09
Falkenbergs FF
1.57

finishing

Skövde AIK+0.00on par
Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skövde AIK ↓

Falkenbergs FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Skövde AIK or draw
65%
Skövde AIK or Falkenbergs FF
75%
Draw or Falkenbergs FF
60%

Winning margin

Skövde AIK wins by 2+
19%
Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Skövde AIK 1+ goals
77%
Skövde AIK 2+ goals
43%
Skövde AIK 3+ goals
18%
Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals
74%
Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals
39%
Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Skövde AIK (draw refunded)
54%
Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skövde AIK at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.09 · 47 matches

Falkenbergs FF away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.57 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skövde AIK attack 1.36 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.47

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.61 + Skövde AIK defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Skövde AIK scores more
40%
level
25%
Falkenbergs FF scores more
35%

Skövde AIK at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Skövde AIK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skövde AIK vs Falkenbergs FF

Skövde AIK beat Falkenbergs FF 3-0 in Superettan on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Södermalms IP in Skövde.