Skövde AIK 2–2 Ariana: Result & Stats

Skövde AIK

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Ariana

E. Abraham 79'

M. Agerborn 45'

V. Castro 69', 51'

5/10/2025

Ettan - Södra · Södra - 7Södermalms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Skövde AIK51%

×Draw24%

Ariana25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Skövde AIKExpected goals in this matchAriana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.15

Skövde AIK

1.75

Ariana

1.15

Skövde AIK creates 52% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 45 away

1.85

creates per match

1.11

1.18

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Skövde AIK

1.85

Ariana

1.11

allows per match

Skövde AIK

1.18

Ariana

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skövde AIK+0.00on par

Ariana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skövde AIK ↓

Ariana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Skövde AIK or draw

75%

Skövde AIK or Ariana

76%

Draw or Ariana

49%

Winning margin

Skövde AIK wins by 2+

28%

Ariana wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Skövde AIK 1+ goals

83%

Skövde AIK 2+ goals

52%

Skövde AIK 3+ goals

25%

Ariana 1+ goals

68%

Ariana 2+ goals

32%

Ariana 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Skövde AIK (draw refunded)

67%

Ariana (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skövde AIK at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

Ariana away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.64 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skövde AIK attack 1.85 + Ariana defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.75

Ariana attack 1.11 + Skövde AIK defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Skövde AIK scores more

51%

level

24%

Ariana scores more

25%

Skövde AIK at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Skövde AIK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

V. Nylen

17'

O. Lennerskog← S. Abraham

45'

M. Agerborn

46'

E. Karaman← P. Simba

46'

V. Castro← L. Wettergren

51'

V. Castro

60'

J. Brannefalk

60'

L. Samuelsson← E. Skillermo

65'

69'

72'

79'

87'

E. Mehmed← A. Sandstrom

87'

V. Kristiansson← A. Reuterskiold

89'

E. Kwakwa

89'

V. Linnarsson← M. Agerborn

Skövde

Ariana

1

2

4

16

8

7

▼

Sandstrom

6

Nouri

14

▼

Wettergre

10

▼

Reuterski

99

Andersson

20

▼

30

19

4

3

22

8

⚽

Abraham

11

Nordstrom

17

Nylen

10

▼

Abraham

7

▼

Skillermo

9

⚽

▼

Agerborn

Manager: C. Abraham

17'▲O. Lennerskog←▼S. Abraham

60'▲L. Samuelsson←▼E. Skillermo

89'▲V. Linnarsson←▼M. Agerborn

Skövde AIK substitutes

35Moulare2Elofsson12Linnarsson13Isacson14Lennerskog16Samuelsson21Yonan

Manager: A. Grimberg

46'▲E. Karaman←▼P. Simba

46'▲V. Castro←▼L. Wettergren

87'▲E. Mehmed←▼A. Sandstrom

87'▲V. Kristiansson←▼A. Reuterskiold

Ariana substitutes

25Lubwama3Bjurnemark5Bunjaku12Mehmed22Karaman36Kristiansson77Castro