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Skopje vs Veleshta — Second League 2019

Skopje
Skopje
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Veleshta
Veleshta
5/15/2021Second LeagueSecond League · West - 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Skopje57%
×Draw25%
Veleshta18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skopje
1.63
Veleshta
0.79

Skopje creates 106% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 16 away

creates per match

Skopje
1.89
Veleshta
0.88

allows per match

Skopje
0.70
Veleshta
1.38

finishing

Skopje+0.00on par
Veleshta+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skopje ↓

Veleshta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Skopje or draw
82%
Skopje or Veleshta
75%
Draw or Veleshta
43%

Winning margin

Skopje wins by 2+
31%
Veleshta wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Skopje 1+ goals
80%
Skopje 2+ goals
48%
Skopje 3+ goals
22%
Veleshta 1+ goals
55%
Veleshta 2+ goals
19%
Veleshta 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Skopje (draw refunded)
76%
Veleshta (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skopje at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.70 · 66 matches

Veleshta away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skopje attack 1.89 + Veleshta defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.63

Veleshta attack 0.88 + Skopje defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Skopje scores more
57%
level
25%
Veleshta scores more
18%

Skopje at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skopje vs Veleshta

Skopje beat Veleshta 3-0 in Second League on May 15, 2021.