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Skopje vs Velazerimi 77 — Second League 2019

Skopje
Skopje
FT
2 – 0
Velazerimi 77
Velazerimi 77
2/29/2020Second LeagueSecond League · West - 15Stadion Železarnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Skopje61%
×Draw24%
Velazerimi 7716%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skopje
1.71
Velazerimi 77
0.74

Skopje creates 131% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 24 away

creates per match

Skopje
1.89
Velazerimi 77
0.79

allows per match

Skopje
0.70
Velazerimi 77
1.54

finishing

Skopje+0.00on par
Velazerimi 77+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skopje ↓

Velazerimi 77 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Skopje or draw
84%
Skopje or Velazerimi 77
76%
Draw or Velazerimi 77
39%

Winning margin

Skopje wins by 2+
34%
Velazerimi 77 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Skopje 1+ goals
82%
Skopje 2+ goals
51%
Skopje 3+ goals
24%
Velazerimi 77 1+ goals
52%
Velazerimi 77 2+ goals
17%
Velazerimi 77 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Skopje (draw refunded)
79%
Velazerimi 77 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skopje at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.70 · 66 matches

Velazerimi 77 away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skopje attack 1.89 + Velazerimi 77 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.71

Velazerimi 77 attack 0.79 + Skopje defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Skopje scores more
61%
level
24%
Velazerimi 77 scores more
16%

Skopje at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Skopje 2–0 Velazerimi 77

Skopje beat Velazerimi 77 2-0 in Second League on February 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Železarnica in Skopje.