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Skopje vs Shkendija — First League 2019

Skopje
Skopje
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Shkendija
Shkendija
3/19/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 24Stadion Železarnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Skopje26%
×Draw28%
Shkendija45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skopje
0.91
Shkendija
1.29

Shkendija creates 42% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 105 away

creates per match

Skopje
0.84
Shkendija
1.60

allows per match

Skopje
0.97
Shkendija
0.97

finishing

Skopje+0.00on par
Shkendija+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skopje ↓

Shkendija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Skopje or draw
55%
Skopje or Shkendija
72%
Draw or Shkendija
74%

Winning margin

Skopje wins by 2+
9%
Shkendija wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Skopje 1+ goals
60%
Skopje 2+ goals
23%
Skopje 3+ goals
6%
Shkendija 1+ goals
72%
Shkendija 2+ goals
37%
Shkendija 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Skopje (draw refunded)
37%
Shkendija (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skopje at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.97 · 31 matches

Shkendija away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.97 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skopje attack 0.84 + Shkendija defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.91

Shkendija attack 1.60 + Skopje defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Skopje scores more
26%
level
28%
Shkendija scores more
45%

Shkendija at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Shkendija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skopje vs Shkendija

Shkendija beat Skopje 2-0 in First League on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Železarnica in Skopje.