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Skopje vs Pobeda — Second League 2019

Skopje
Skopje
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pobeda
Pobeda
5/6/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 28Stadion Železarnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Skopje69%
×Draw19%
Pobeda11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skopje
2.05
Pobeda
0.69

Skopje creates 197% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 67 away

creates per match

Skopje
1.89
Pobeda
0.69

allows per match

Skopje
0.70
Pobeda
2.21

finishing

Skopje+0.00on par
Pobeda+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skopje ↓

Pobeda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Skopje or draw
89%
Skopje or Pobeda
81%
Draw or Pobeda
31%

Winning margin

Skopje wins by 2+
44%
Pobeda wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Skopje 1+ goals
87%
Skopje 2+ goals
61%
Skopje 3+ goals
33%
Pobeda 1+ goals
50%
Pobeda 2+ goals
15%
Pobeda 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Skopje (draw refunded)
86%
Pobeda (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skopje at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.70 · 66 matches

Pobeda away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.21 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skopje attack 1.89 + Pobeda defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.05

Pobeda attack 0.69 + Skopje defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Skopje scores more
69%
level
19%
Pobeda scores more
11%

Skopje at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Skopje 0–0 Pobeda

Skopje and Pobeda drew 0-0 in Second League on May 6, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Železarnica in Skopje.