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Skopje vs Belasica — Second League 2019

Skopje
Skopje
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Belasica
Belasica
5/11/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 29Stadion Železarnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Skopje48%
×Draw26%
Belasica27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skopje
1.53
Belasica
1.08

Skopje creates 42% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 68 away

creates per match

Skopje
1.89
Belasica
1.46

allows per match

Skopje
0.70
Belasica
1.18

finishing

Skopje+0.00on par
Belasica+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skopje ↓

Belasica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Skopje or draw
73%
Skopje or Belasica
74%
Draw or Belasica
52%

Winning margin

Skopje wins by 2+
24%
Belasica wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Skopje 1+ goals
78%
Skopje 2+ goals
45%
Skopje 3+ goals
20%
Belasica 1+ goals
66%
Belasica 2+ goals
29%
Belasica 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Skopje (draw refunded)
64%
Belasica (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skopje at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.70 · 66 matches

Belasica away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skopje attack 1.89 + Belasica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.53

Belasica attack 1.46 + Skopje defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Skopje scores more
48%
level
26%
Belasica scores more
27%

Skopje at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Skopje 2–2 Belasica

Skopje and Belasica drew 2-2 in Second League on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Železarnica in Skopje.