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SKN ST. Polten vs SV Mattersburg — Bundesliga 2018

SKN ST. Polten
SKN ST. Polten
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SV Mattersburg
SV Mattersburg
6/16/2020BundesligaBundesliga · Relegation Round - 5NV ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

SKN ST. Polten38%
×Draw25%
SV Mattersburg37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SKN ST. Polten
1.48
SV Mattersburg
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 31 away

creates per match

SKN ST. Polten
1.06
SV Mattersburg
1.13

allows per match

SKN ST. Polten
1.80
SV Mattersburg
1.90

finishing

SKN ST. Polten+0.00on par
SV Mattersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKN ST. Polten ↓

SV Mattersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

SKN ST. Polten or draw
63%
SKN ST. Polten or SV Mattersburg
75%
Draw or SV Mattersburg
62%

Winning margin

SKN ST. Polten wins by 2+
18%
SV Mattersburg wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

SKN ST. Polten 1+ goals
77%
SKN ST. Polten 2+ goals
43%
SKN ST. Polten 3+ goals
19%
SV Mattersburg 1+ goals
77%
SV Mattersburg 2+ goals
43%
SV Mattersburg 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

SKN ST. Polten (draw refunded)
51%
SV Mattersburg (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKN ST. Polten at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.80 · 49 matches

SV Mattersburg away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.90 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKN ST. Polten attack 1.06 + SV Mattersburg defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.48

SV Mattersburg attack 1.13 + SKN ST. Polten defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

SKN ST. Polten scores more
38%
level
25%
SV Mattersburg scores more
37%

SKN ST. Polten at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "SKN ST. Polten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SKN ST. Polten vs SV Mattersburg

SKN ST. Polten beat SV Mattersburg 1-0 in Bundesliga on June 16, 2020.

The match was played at NV ARENA in St. Pölten.