SKN ST. Polten 0–2 Plzen: Result & Stats

SKN ST. Polten

0 – 2

Plzen

8/11/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Jenbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

SKN ST. Polten21%

×Draw22%

Plzen57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SKN ST. PoltenExpected goals in this matchPlzen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.90

SKN ST. Polten

1.06

Plzen

1.90

Plzen creates 79% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

1.50

creates per match

2.38

1.42

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

SKN ST. Polten

1.50

Plzen

2.38

allows per match

SKN ST. Polten

1.42

Plzen

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SKN ST. Polten+0.00on par

Plzen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKN ST. Polten ↓

Plzen →

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

SKN ST. Polten or draw

43%

SKN ST. Polten or Plzen

78%

Draw or Plzen

79%

Winning margin

SKN ST. Polten wins by 2+

Plzen wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

SKN ST. Polten 1+ goals

65%

SKN ST. Polten 2+ goals

29%

SKN ST. Polten 3+ goals

Plzen 1+ goals

85%

Plzen 2+ goals

56%

Plzen 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

SKN ST. Polten (draw refunded)

27%

Plzen (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

SKN ST. Polten at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

Plzen away — creates 2.38, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

SKN ST. Polten attack 1.50 + Plzen defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.06

Plzen attack 2.38 + SKN ST. Polten defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

SKN ST. Polten scores more

21%

level

22%

Plzen scores more

57%

Plzen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff