Skjetten 0–4 Mjøndalen II: Result & Stats

Skjetten

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Mjøndalen II

5/21/2022

3. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 7Skjetten Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Skjetten52%

×Draw19%

Mjøndalen II29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SkjettenExpected goals in this matchMjøndalen II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.62

1.96

Skjetten

2.62

Mjøndalen II

1.96

Skjetten creates 34% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.08

creates per match

1.77

2.15

allows per match

3.15

creates per match

Skjetten

2.08

Mjøndalen II

1.77

allows per match

Skjetten

2.15

Mjøndalen II

3.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skjetten+0.00on par

Mjøndalen II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skjetten ↓

Mjøndalen II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Skjetten or draw

71%

Skjetten or Mjøndalen II

81%

Draw or Mjøndalen II

48%

Winning margin

Skjetten wins by 2+

33%

Mjøndalen II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Skjetten 1+ goals

93%

Skjetten 2+ goals

73%

Skjetten 3+ goals

48%

Mjøndalen II 1+ goals

86%

Mjøndalen II 2+ goals

58%

Mjøndalen II 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Skjetten (draw refunded)

64%

Mjøndalen II (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skjetten at home — creates 2.08, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

Mjøndalen II away — creates 1.77, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skjetten attack 2.08 + Mjøndalen II defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.62

Mjøndalen II attack 1.77 + Skjetten defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Skjetten scores more

52%

level

19%

Mjøndalen II scores more

29%

Skjetten at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Skjetten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff