Skjetten 2–1 Kristiansund II: Result & Stats

Skjetten

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Kristiansund II

M. Tvedte 34'

T. Paulsen 15'

Unknown 51'

4/8/2024

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 1Skjetten Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Skjetten56%

×Draw20%

Kristiansund II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SkjettenExpected goals in this matchKristiansund II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.48

Skjetten

2.33

Kristiansund II

1.48

Skjetten creates 57% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 26 away

2.32

creates per match

1.38

1.58

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Skjetten

2.32

Kristiansund II

1.38

allows per match

Skjetten

1.58

Kristiansund II

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skjetten+0.00on par

Kristiansund II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skjetten ↓

Kristiansund II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Skjetten or draw

76%

Skjetten or Kristiansund II

80%

Draw or Kristiansund II

44%

Winning margin

Skjetten wins by 2+

35%

Kristiansund II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Skjetten 1+ goals

90%

Skjetten 2+ goals

67%

Skjetten 3+ goals

41%

Kristiansund II 1+ goals

77%

Kristiansund II 2+ goals

43%

Kristiansund II 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Skjetten (draw refunded)

70%

Kristiansund II (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skjetten at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

Kristiansund II away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skjetten attack 2.32 + Kristiansund II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.33

Kristiansund II attack 1.38 + Skjetten defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Skjetten scores more

56%

level

20%

Kristiansund II scores more

24%

Skjetten at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Skjetten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

T. Paulsen

34'

M. Tvedte

51'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff