Skjetten 5–1 HamKam II: Result & Stats

Skjetten

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

HamKam II

5/5/2025

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 5Skjetten Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Skjetten55%

×Draw20%

HamKam II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SkjettenExpected goals in this matchHamKam II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.58

Skjetten

2.38

HamKam II

1.58

Skjetten creates 51% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.08

creates per match

1.54

1.62

allows per match

2.69

creates per match

Skjetten

2.08

HamKam II

1.54

allows per match

Skjetten

1.62

HamKam II

2.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skjetten+0.00on par

HamKam II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skjetten ↓

HamKam II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Skjetten or draw

75%

Skjetten or HamKam II

80%

Draw or HamKam II

45%

Winning margin

Skjetten wins by 2+

34%

HamKam II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Skjetten 1+ goals

91%

Skjetten 2+ goals

68%

Skjetten 3+ goals

42%

HamKam II 1+ goals

79%

HamKam II 2+ goals

47%

HamKam II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Skjetten (draw refunded)

69%

HamKam II (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skjetten at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

HamKam II away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skjetten attack 2.08 + HamKam II defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.38

HamKam II attack 1.54 + Skjetten defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Skjetten scores more

55%

level

20%

HamKam II scores more

25%

Skjetten at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Skjetten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff