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Skjetten vs Gjelleråsen — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Skjetten
Skjetten
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gjelleråsen
Gjelleråsen
9/16/20233. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 20Skjetten Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Skjetten33%
×Draw22%
Gjelleråsen45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skjetten
1.69
Gjelleråsen
1.99

Gjelleråsen creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

creates per match

Skjetten
1.62
Gjelleråsen
2.20

allows per match

Skjetten
1.77
Gjelleråsen
1.75

finishing

Skjetten+0.00on par
Gjelleråsen+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skjetten ↓

Gjelleråsen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Skjetten or draw
55%
Skjetten or Gjelleråsen
78%
Draw or Gjelleråsen
67%

Winning margin

Skjetten wins by 2+
16%
Gjelleråsen wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Skjetten 1+ goals
82%
Skjetten 2+ goals
50%
Skjetten 3+ goals
24%
Gjelleråsen 1+ goals
86%
Gjelleråsen 2+ goals
59%
Gjelleråsen 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Skjetten (draw refunded)
42%
Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skjetten at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Gjelleråsen away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skjetten attack 1.62 + Gjelleråsen defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.69

Gjelleråsen attack 2.20 + Skjetten defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Skjetten scores more
33%
level
22%
Gjelleråsen scores more
45%

Gjelleråsen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gjelleråsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skjetten vs Gjelleråsen

Skjetten beat Gjelleråsen 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Skjetten Stadion in Skjetten.