Skjetten 0–2 Aalesund II: Result & Stats

Skjetten

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Aalesund II

6/2/2024

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 9Skjetten Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Skjetten43%

×Draw22%

Aalesund II35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SkjettenExpected goals in this matchAalesund II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.72

Skjetten

1.94

Aalesund II

1.72

Skjetten creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

2.32

creates per match

1.85

1.58

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Skjetten

2.32

Aalesund II

1.85

allows per match

Skjetten

1.58

Aalesund II

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skjetten+0.00on par

Aalesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skjetten ↓

Aalesund II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Skjetten or draw

65%

Skjetten or Aalesund II

78%

Draw or Aalesund II

57%

Winning margin

Skjetten wins by 2+

24%

Aalesund II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Skjetten 1+ goals

86%

Skjetten 2+ goals

58%

Skjetten 3+ goals

30%

Aalesund II 1+ goals

82%

Aalesund II 2+ goals

51%

Aalesund II 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Skjetten (draw refunded)

56%

Aalesund II (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skjetten at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

Aalesund II away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skjetten attack 2.32 + Aalesund II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.94

Aalesund II attack 1.85 + Skjetten defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Skjetten scores more

43%

level

22%

Aalesund II scores more

35%

Skjetten at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Skjetten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff