Skjervøy 3–2 Sortland: Result & Stats

Skjervøy

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sortland

N. Hansen 81'

S. Jakobsen 69'

O. I. Skalebo 41'

A. Vang 89' (OG)

A. Jorgensen 84'

4/27/2025

3. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 4Lerøy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Skjervøy65%

×Draw17%

Sortland18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SkjervøyExpected goals in this matchSortland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.88

1.50

Skjervøy

2.88

Sortland

1.50

Skjervøy creates 92% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.77

creates per match

1.23

1.77

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Skjervøy

1.77

Sortland

1.23

allows per match

Skjervøy

1.77

Sortland

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skjervøy+0.00on par

Sortland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skjervøy ↓

Sortland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Skjervøy or draw

82%

Skjervøy or Sortland

83%

Draw or Sortland

35%

Winning margin

Skjervøy wins by 2+

45%

Sortland wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Skjervøy 1+ goals

94%

Skjervøy 2+ goals

78%

Skjervøy 3+ goals

54%

Sortland 1+ goals

78%

Sortland 2+ goals

44%

Sortland 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Skjervøy (draw refunded)

78%

Sortland (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skjervøy at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Sortland away — creates 1.23, concedes 4.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skjervøy attack 1.77 + Sortland defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.88

Sortland attack 1.23 + Skjervøy defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Skjervøy scores more

65%

level

17%

Sortland scores more

18%

Skjervøy at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Skjervøy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

69'

81'

84'

89'

A. VangOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff