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Skjervøy vs Hammerfest IF Stein — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Skjervøy
Skjervøy
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Hammerfest IF Stein
Hammerfest IF Stein
10/28/20233. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 26Lerøy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Skjervøy87%
×Draw9%
Hammerfest IF Stein5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skjervøy
3.58
Hammerfest IF Stein
0.76

Skjervøy creates 371% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 13 away

creates per match

Skjervøy
2.24
Hammerfest IF Stein
0.08

allows per match

Skjervøy
1.44
Hammerfest IF Stein
4.92

finishing

Skjervøy+0.00on par
Hammerfest IF Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skjervøy ↓

Hammerfest IF Stein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Skjervøy or draw
95%
Skjervøy or Hammerfest IF Stein
91%
Draw or Hammerfest IF Stein
13%

Winning margin

Skjervøy wins by 2+
71%
Hammerfest IF Stein wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Skjervøy 1+ goals
97%
Skjervøy 2+ goals
86%
Skjervøy 3+ goals
67%
Hammerfest IF Stein 1+ goals
53%
Hammerfest IF Stein 2+ goals
18%
Hammerfest IF Stein 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Skjervøy (draw refunded)
95%
Hammerfest IF Stein (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skjervøy at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

Hammerfest IF Stein away — creates 0.08, concedes 4.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skjervøy attack 2.24 + Hammerfest IF Stein defence 4.92 → ÷2 → 3.58

Hammerfest IF Stein attack 0.08 + Skjervøy defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Skjervøy scores more
87%
level
9%
Hammerfest IF Stein scores more
5%

Skjervøy at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Skjervøy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skjervøy vs Hammerfest IF Stein

Skjervøy beat Hammerfest IF Stein 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Lerøy Stadion in Skjervøy.