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Skjervøy vs HamKam II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Skjervøy
Skjervøy
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
HamKam II
HamKam II
9/22/20243. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 22Lerøy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Skjervøy54%
×Draw19%
HamKam II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skjervøy
2.62
HamKam II
1.83

Skjervøy creates 43% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 13 away

creates per match

Skjervøy
2.24
HamKam II
2.23

allows per match

Skjervøy
1.44
HamKam II
3.00

finishing

Skjervøy+0.00on par
HamKam II+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skjervøy ↓

HamKam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Skjervøy or draw
73%
Skjervøy or HamKam II
81%
Draw or HamKam II
46%

Winning margin

Skjervøy wins by 2+
35%
HamKam II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Skjervøy 1+ goals
93%
Skjervøy 2+ goals
73%
Skjervøy 3+ goals
48%
HamKam II 1+ goals
84%
HamKam II 2+ goals
54%
HamKam II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Skjervøy (draw refunded)
67%
HamKam II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skjervøy at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

HamKam II away — creates 2.23, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skjervøy attack 2.24 + HamKam II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.62

HamKam II attack 2.23 + Skjervøy defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Skjervøy scores more
54%
level
19%
HamKam II scores more
27%

Skjervøy at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Skjervøy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Skjervøy 4–2 HamKam II

Skjervøy beat HamKam II 4-2 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Lerøy Stadion in Skjervøy.