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Skjervøy vs Frigg — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Skjervøy
Skjervøy
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Frigg
Frigg
O. I. Skalebo 67'
P. Nomell 73'
S. Barane 51'
6/8/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 9Lerøy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Skjervøy29%
×Draw20%
Frigg51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skjervøy
1.74
Frigg
2.35

Frigg creates 35% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 31 away

creates per match

Skjervøy
1.77
Frigg
2.94

allows per match

Skjervøy
1.77
Frigg
1.71

finishing

Skjervøy+0.00on par
Frigg+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skjervøy ↓

Frigg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Skjervøy or draw
49%
Skjervøy or Frigg
80%
Draw or Frigg
71%

Winning margin

Skjervøy wins by 2+
14%
Frigg wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Skjervøy 1+ goals
82%
Skjervøy 2+ goals
52%
Skjervøy 3+ goals
25%
Frigg 1+ goals
90%
Frigg 2+ goals
68%
Frigg 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Skjervøy (draw refunded)
36%
Frigg (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skjervøy at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Frigg away — creates 2.94, concedes 1.71 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skjervøy attack 1.77 + Frigg defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.74

Frigg attack 2.94 + Skjervøy defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Skjervøy scores more
29%
level
20%
Frigg scores more
51%

Frigg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Frigg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'
S. Barane
67'
O. I. Skalebo
73'
P. Nomell

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Skjervøy 1–2 Frigg

Frigg beat Skjervøy 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on June 8, 2025.

Goals: S. Barane (51'), O. I. Skalebo (67'), P. Nomell (73').

The match was played at Lerøy Stadion in Skjervøy.