Skive 6–2 Vejgaard B: Result & Stats

Skive

FT

6 – 2

Vejgaard B

8/25/2018

2nd Division - Group 1 · Round 5Hancock Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Skive51%

×Draw24%

Vejgaard B25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SkiveExpected goals in this matchVejgaard B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.17

Skive

1.76

Vejgaard B

1.17

Skive creates 50% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 6 away

1.19

creates per match

1.00

1.34

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Skive

1.19

Vejgaard B

1.00

allows per match

Skive

1.34

Vejgaard B

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skive+0.00on par

Vejgaard B+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skive ↓

Vejgaard B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Skive or draw

75%

Skive or Vejgaard B

76%

Draw or Vejgaard B

49%

Winning margin

Skive wins by 2+

28%

Vejgaard B wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Skive 1+ goals

83%

Skive 2+ goals

52%

Skive 3+ goals

26%

Vejgaard B 1+ goals

69%

Vejgaard B 2+ goals

33%

Vejgaard B 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Skive (draw refunded)

67%

Vejgaard B (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skive at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.34 · 80 matches

Vejgaard B away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skive attack 1.19 + Vejgaard B defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.76

Vejgaard B attack 1.00 + Skive defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Skive scores more

51%

level

24%

Vejgaard B scores more

25%

Skive at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Skive will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff