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Skive vs Roskilde — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Skive
Skive
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Roskilde
Roskilde
11/7/20252nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 15Hancock Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Skive34%
×Draw26%
Roskilde40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skive
1.27
Roskilde
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 46 away

creates per match

Skive
1.21
Roskilde
1.43

allows per match

Skive
1.33
Roskilde
1.33

finishing

Skive+0.00on par
Roskilde+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skive ↓

Roskilde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Skive or draw
60%
Skive or Roskilde
74%
Draw or Roskilde
66%

Winning margin

Skive wins by 2+
15%
Roskilde wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Skive 1+ goals
72%
Skive 2+ goals
36%
Skive 3+ goals
14%
Roskilde 1+ goals
75%
Roskilde 2+ goals
40%
Roskilde 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Skive (draw refunded)
47%
Roskilde (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skive at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.33 · 84 matches

Roskilde away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.33 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skive attack 1.21 + Roskilde defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Roskilde attack 1.43 + Skive defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Skive scores more
34%
level
26%
Roskilde scores more
40%

Roskilde at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Roskilde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skive vs Roskilde

Skive and Roskilde drew 1-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on November 7, 2025.

The match was played at Hancock Arena in Skive.