Skive 0–4 Kolding IF: Result & Stats

Skive

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 4

Kolding IF

S. Denius 35'

P. Ngongo 30'

J. Kiilerich Rask 6'

C. Kudsk 3'

11/4/2022

2nd Division - Group 1 · Round 14Hancock Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Skive25%

×Draw26%

Kolding IF49%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SkiveExpected goals in this matchKolding IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.54

Skive

1.02

Kolding IF

1.54

Kolding IF creates 51% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 33 away

1.19

creates per match

1.73

1.34

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Skive

1.19

Kolding IF

1.73

allows per match

Skive

1.34

Kolding IF

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skive+0.00on par

Kolding IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skive ↓

Kolding IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Skive or draw

51%

Skive or Kolding IF

74%

Draw or Kolding IF

75%

Winning margin

Skive wins by 2+

9%

Kolding IF wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Skive 1+ goals

64%

Skive 2+ goals

27%

Skive 3+ goals

8%

Kolding IF 1+ goals

79%

Kolding IF 2+ goals

45%

Kolding IF 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Skive (draw refunded)

34%

Kolding IF (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skive at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.34 · 80 matches

Kolding IF away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skive attack 1.19 + Kolding IF defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.02

Kolding IF attack 1.73 + Skive defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Skive scores more

25%

level

26%

Kolding IF scores more

49%

Kolding IF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kolding IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

C. Kudsk

6'

J. Kiilerich Rask

30'

P. Ngongo

35'

S. Denius

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff