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Skive vs FC Helsingor — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Skive
Skive
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FC Helsingor
FC Helsingor
3/6/20262nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 17Hancock Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Skive37%
×Draw25%
FC Helsingor38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skive
1.39
FC Helsingor
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 40 away

creates per match

Skive
1.21
FC Helsingor
1.48

allows per match

Skive
1.33
FC Helsingor
1.57

finishing

Skive+0.00on par
FC Helsingor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skive ↓

FC Helsingor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Skive or draw
62%
Skive or FC Helsingor
75%
Draw or FC Helsingor
63%

Winning margin

Skive wins by 2+
17%
FC Helsingor wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Skive 1+ goals
75%
Skive 2+ goals
40%
Skive 3+ goals
16%
FC Helsingor 1+ goals
76%
FC Helsingor 2+ goals
41%
FC Helsingor 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Skive (draw refunded)
49%
FC Helsingor (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skive at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.33 · 84 matches

FC Helsingor away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.57 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skive attack 1.21 + FC Helsingor defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.39

FC Helsingor attack 1.48 + Skive defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Skive scores more
37%
level
25%
FC Helsingor scores more
38%

FC Helsingor at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Helsingor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Skive 1–1 FC Helsingor

Skive and FC Helsingor drew 1-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on March 6, 2026.

The match was played at Hancock Arena in Skive.