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Skive vs FA 2000 — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Skive
Skive
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
FA 2000
FA 2000
5/25/20242nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Relegation Round - 7Hancock Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Skive46%
×Draw26%
FA 200028%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skive
1.44
FA 2000
1.05

Skive creates 37% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 35 away

creates per match

Skive
1.21
FA 2000
0.77

allows per match

Skive
1.33
FA 2000
1.66

finishing

Skive+0.00on par
FA 2000+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skive ↓

FA 2000 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Skive or draw
72%
Skive or FA 2000
74%
Draw or FA 2000
54%

Winning margin

Skive wins by 2+
22%
FA 2000 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Skive 1+ goals
76%
Skive 2+ goals
42%
Skive 3+ goals
18%
FA 2000 1+ goals
65%
FA 2000 2+ goals
28%
FA 2000 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Skive (draw refunded)
63%
FA 2000 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skive at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.33 · 84 matches

FA 2000 away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.66 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skive attack 1.21 + FA 2000 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.44

FA 2000 attack 0.77 + Skive defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Skive scores more
46%
level
26%
FA 2000 scores more
28%

Skive at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Skive will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Skive 3 – 2 FA 2000

Skive beat FA 2000 3-2 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Hancock Arena in Skive.