Skive 1–1 Aarhus Fremad: Result & Stats

Skive

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Aarhus Fremad

O. Ostergaard 38'

J. Beluli 33'

6/7/2025

2nd Division - Group 1 · Promotion Group - 9Hancock Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Skive30%

×Draw26%

Aarhus Fremad44%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SkiveExpected goals in this matchAarhus Fremad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.48

Skive

1.17

Aarhus Fremad

1.48

Aarhus Fremad creates 26% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 81 away

1.19

creates per match

1.63

1.34

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Skive

1.19

Aarhus Fremad

1.63

allows per match

Skive

1.34

Aarhus Fremad

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skive+0.00on par

Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skive ↓

Aarhus Fremad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Skive or draw

56%

Skive or Aarhus Fremad

74%

Draw or Aarhus Fremad

70%

Winning margin

Skive wins by 2+

12%

Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Skive 1+ goals

69%

Skive 2+ goals

33%

Skive 3+ goals

11%

Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals

77%

Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals

43%

Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Skive (draw refunded)

40%

Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skive at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.34 · 80 matches

Aarhus Fremad away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skive attack 1.19 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.63 + Skive defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Skive scores more

30%

level

26%

Aarhus Fremad scores more

44%

Aarhus Fremad at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

F. Warrer

33'

J. Beluli

38'

O. Ostergaard

46'

A. Pisani← A. Pisani

62'

K. Lunding

65'

S. Baekgard

69'

M. Christiansen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff