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Skiljebo vs IF Elfsborg — Svenska Cupen 2019

Skiljebo
Skiljebo
FT
1 – 8
HT: 0 – 3
IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborg
2/27/2022Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Iver Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Skiljebo12%
×Draw15%
IF Elfsborg73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skiljebo
1.02
IF Elfsborg
2.76

IF Elfsborg creates 171% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Skiljebo
1.33
IF Elfsborg
2.36

allows per match

Skiljebo
3.17
IF Elfsborg
0.71

finishing

Skiljebo+0.00on par
IF Elfsborg+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skiljebo ↓

IF Elfsborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–29%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Skiljebo or draw
27%
Skiljebo or IF Elfsborg
85%
Draw or IF Elfsborg
88%

Winning margin

Skiljebo wins by 2+
4%
IF Elfsborg wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Skiljebo 1+ goals
64%
Skiljebo 2+ goals
27%
Skiljebo 3+ goals
8%
IF Elfsborg 1+ goals
94%
IF Elfsborg 2+ goals
76%
IF Elfsborg 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Skiljebo (draw refunded)
14%
IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skiljebo at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

IF Elfsborg away — creates 2.36, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skiljebo attack 1.33 + IF Elfsborg defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.02

IF Elfsborg attack 2.36 + Skiljebo defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Skiljebo scores more
12%
level
15%
IF Elfsborg scores more
73%

IF Elfsborg at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "IF Elfsborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skiljebo vs IF Elfsborg

IF Elfsborg beat Skiljebo 8-1 in Svenska Cupen on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at Iver Arena in Västerås.