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Skiljebo vs Haninge — Svenska Cupen 2019

Skiljebo
Skiljebo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Haninge
Haninge
6/16/2021Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 1st RoundHamre IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Skiljebo17%
×Draw17%
Haninge67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skiljebo
1.33
Haninge
2.75

Haninge creates 107% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Skiljebo
1.33
Haninge
2.33

allows per match

Skiljebo
3.17
Haninge
1.33

finishing

Skiljebo+0.00on par
Haninge+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skiljebo ↓

Haninge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Skiljebo or draw
33%
Skiljebo or Haninge
83%
Draw or Haninge
83%

Winning margin

Skiljebo wins by 2+
7%
Haninge wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Skiljebo 1+ goals
74%
Skiljebo 2+ goals
38%
Skiljebo 3+ goals
15%
Haninge 1+ goals
93%
Haninge 2+ goals
75%
Haninge 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Skiljebo (draw refunded)
20%
Haninge (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skiljebo at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

Haninge away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skiljebo attack 1.33 + Haninge defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Haninge attack 2.33 + Skiljebo defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Skiljebo scores more
17%
level
17%
Haninge scores more
67%

Haninge at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Haninge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Skiljebo 1–0 Haninge

Skiljebo beat Haninge 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on June 16, 2021.

The match was played at Hamre IP in Västerås.