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Skiljebo vs Fagersta Södra IK — Division 2 - Norra Svealand 2019

Skiljebo
Skiljebo
FT
2 – 1
Fagersta Södra IK
Fagersta Södra IK
9/12/2020Division 2 - Norra SvealandDivision 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 8Hamre IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Skiljebo80%
×Draw12%
Fagersta Södra IK8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skiljebo
3.50
Fagersta Södra IK
1.12

Skiljebo creates 212% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 6 away

creates per match

Skiljebo
2.18
Fagersta Södra IK
0.67

allows per match

Skiljebo
1.57
Fagersta Södra IK
4.83

finishing

Skiljebo+0.00on par
Fagersta Södra IK+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skiljebo ↓

Fagersta Södra IK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Skiljebo or draw
92%
Skiljebo or Fagersta Södra IK
88%
Draw or Fagersta Södra IK
20%

Winning margin

Skiljebo wins by 2+
62%
Fagersta Södra IK wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Skiljebo 1+ goals
97%
Skiljebo 2+ goals
85%
Skiljebo 3+ goals
66%
Fagersta Södra IK 1+ goals
67%
Fagersta Södra IK 2+ goals
31%
Fagersta Södra IK 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Skiljebo (draw refunded)
90%
Fagersta Södra IK (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skiljebo at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.57 · 92 matches

Fagersta Södra IK away — creates 0.67, concedes 4.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skiljebo attack 2.18 + Fagersta Södra IK defence 4.83 → ÷2 → 3.50

Fagersta Södra IK attack 0.67 + Skiljebo defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Skiljebo scores more
80%
level
12%
Fagersta Södra IK scores more
8%

Skiljebo at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Skiljebo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skiljebo vs Fagersta Södra IK

Skiljebo beat Fagersta Södra IK 2-1 in Division 2 - Norra Svealand on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Hamre IP in Västerås.