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Skiljebo vs Degerfors IF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Skiljebo
Skiljebo
FT
1 – 6
HT: 1 – 2
Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
2/19/2022Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Iver Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Skiljebo18%
×Draw17%
Degerfors IF65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skiljebo
1.49
Degerfors IF
2.88

Degerfors IF creates 93% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

creates per match

Skiljebo
1.33
Degerfors IF
2.59

allows per match

Skiljebo
3.17
Degerfors IF
1.65

finishing

Skiljebo+0.00on par
Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skiljebo ↓

Degerfors IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Skiljebo or draw
35%
Skiljebo or Degerfors IF
83%
Draw or Degerfors IF
82%

Winning margin

Skiljebo wins by 2+
8%
Degerfors IF wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Skiljebo 1+ goals
77%
Skiljebo 2+ goals
44%
Skiljebo 3+ goals
19%
Degerfors IF 1+ goals
94%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
78%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

Skiljebo (draw refunded)
22%
Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skiljebo at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 2.59, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skiljebo attack 1.33 + Degerfors IF defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.49

Degerfors IF attack 2.59 + Skiljebo defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Skiljebo scores more
18%
level
17%
Degerfors IF scores more
65%

Degerfors IF at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skiljebo vs Degerfors IF

Degerfors IF beat Skiljebo 6-1 in Svenska Cupen on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at Iver Arena in Västerås.