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Skiljebo vs Dalkurd FF — Division 2 - Norra Svealand 2019

Skiljebo
Skiljebo
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
6/1/2024Division 2 - Norra SvealandDivision 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 10Hamre IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Skiljebo60%
×Draw19%
Dalkurd FF21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skiljebo
2.44
Dalkurd FF
1.40

Skiljebo creates 74% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 13 away

creates per match

Skiljebo
2.18
Dalkurd FF
1.23

allows per match

Skiljebo
1.57
Dalkurd FF
2.69

finishing

Skiljebo+0.00on par
Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skiljebo ↓

Dalkurd FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Skiljebo or draw
79%
Skiljebo or Dalkurd FF
81%
Draw or Dalkurd FF
40%

Winning margin

Skiljebo wins by 2+
39%
Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Skiljebo 1+ goals
91%
Skiljebo 2+ goals
70%
Skiljebo 3+ goals
43%
Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
75%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
41%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Skiljebo (draw refunded)
74%
Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skiljebo at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.57 · 92 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skiljebo attack 2.18 + Dalkurd FF defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.44

Dalkurd FF attack 1.23 + Skiljebo defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Skiljebo scores more
60%
level
19%
Dalkurd FF scores more
21%

Skiljebo at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Skiljebo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Svealand: Skiljebo 2–2 Dalkurd FF

Skiljebo and Dalkurd FF drew 2-2 in Division 2 - Norra Svealand on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Hamre IP in Västerås.