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Skenderbeu Korce vs Vllaznia Shkodër — Superliga 2018

Skenderbeu Korce
Skenderbeu Korce
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vllaznia Shkodër
Vllaznia Shkodër
3/11/2024SuperligaSuperliga · Round 27Stadiumi Skënderbeu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Skenderbeu Korce36%
×Draw30%
Vllaznia Shkodër34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skenderbeu Korce
1.06
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 109 home / 128 away

creates per match

Skenderbeu Korce
1.11
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.97

allows per match

Skenderbeu Korce
1.07
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.02

finishing

Skenderbeu Korce+0.00on par
Vllaznia Shkodër+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skenderbeu Korce ↓

Vllaznia Shkodër →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Skenderbeu Korce or draw
66%
Skenderbeu Korce or Vllaznia Shkodër
70%
Draw or Vllaznia Shkodër
64%

Winning margin

Skenderbeu Korce wins by 2+
14%
Vllaznia Shkodër wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Skenderbeu Korce 1+ goals
65%
Skenderbeu Korce 2+ goals
29%
Skenderbeu Korce 3+ goals
9%
Vllaznia Shkodër 1+ goals
64%
Vllaznia Shkodër 2+ goals
27%
Vllaznia Shkodër 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Skenderbeu Korce (draw refunded)
51%
Vllaznia Shkodër (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skenderbeu Korce at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.07 · 109 matches

Vllaznia Shkodër away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.02 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skenderbeu Korce attack 1.11 + Vllaznia Shkodër defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Vllaznia Shkodër attack 0.97 + Skenderbeu Korce defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Skenderbeu Korce scores more
36%
level
30%
Vllaznia Shkodër scores more
34%

Skenderbeu Korce at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Skenderbeu Korce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skenderbeu Korce vs Vllaznia Shkodër

Vllaznia Shkodër beat Skenderbeu Korce 1-0 in Superliga on March 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Skënderbeu in Korçë.