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Skenderbeu Korce vs Tërbuni Pukë — 1st Division 2019

Skenderbeu Korce
Skenderbeu Korce
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tërbuni Pukë
Tërbuni Pukë
2/6/20231st Division1st Division · Round 14Stadiumi Skënderbeu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Skenderbeu Korce62%
×Draw25%
Tërbuni Pukë13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skenderbeu Korce
1.60
Tërbuni Pukë
0.59

Skenderbeu Korce creates 171% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 39 away

creates per match

Skenderbeu Korce
1.97
Tërbuni Pukë
0.51

allows per match

Skenderbeu Korce
0.67
Tërbuni Pukë
1.23

finishing

Skenderbeu Korce+0.00on par
Tërbuni Pukë+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skenderbeu Korce ↓

Tërbuni Pukë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Skenderbeu Korce or draw
87%
Skenderbeu Korce or Tërbuni Pukë
75%
Draw or Tërbuni Pukë
38%

Winning margin

Skenderbeu Korce wins by 2+
34%
Tërbuni Pukë wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Skenderbeu Korce 1+ goals
80%
Skenderbeu Korce 2+ goals
47%
Skenderbeu Korce 3+ goals
22%
Tërbuni Pukë 1+ goals
45%
Tërbuni Pukë 2+ goals
12%
Tërbuni Pukë 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Skenderbeu Korce (draw refunded)
82%
Tërbuni Pukë (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skenderbeu Korce at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.67 · 30 matches

Tërbuni Pukë away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skenderbeu Korce attack 1.97 + Tërbuni Pukë defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.60

Tërbuni Pukë attack 0.51 + Skenderbeu Korce defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Skenderbeu Korce scores more
62%
level
25%
Tërbuni Pukë scores more
13%

Skenderbeu Korce at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Skenderbeu Korce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Skenderbeu Korce 2–0 Tërbuni Pukë

Skenderbeu Korce beat Tërbuni Pukë 2-0 in 1st Division on February 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Skënderbeu in Korçë.