Skenderbeu Korce 2–1 Luzi 2008: Result & Stats

Skenderbeu Korce

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Luzi 2008

2/25/2023

1st Division · Round 17Stadiumi Skënderbeu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Skenderbeu Korce61%

×Draw22%

Luzi 200816%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Skenderbeu KorceExpected goals in this matchLuzi 2008

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.82

Skenderbeu Korce

1.84

Luzi 2008

0.82

Skenderbeu Korce creates 124% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

1.97

creates per match

0.97

0.67

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Skenderbeu Korce

1.97

Luzi 2008

0.97

allows per match

Skenderbeu Korce

0.67

Luzi 2008

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skenderbeu Korce+0.00on par

Luzi 2008+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skenderbeu Korce ↓

Luzi 2008 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Skenderbeu Korce or draw

84%

Skenderbeu Korce or Luzi 2008

78%

Draw or Luzi 2008

39%

Winning margin

Skenderbeu Korce wins by 2+

36%

Luzi 2008 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Skenderbeu Korce 1+ goals

84%

Skenderbeu Korce 2+ goals

55%

Skenderbeu Korce 3+ goals

28%

Luzi 2008 1+ goals

56%

Luzi 2008 2+ goals

20%

Luzi 2008 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Skenderbeu Korce (draw refunded)

79%

Luzi 2008 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skenderbeu Korce at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.67 · 30 matches

Luzi 2008 away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.71 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skenderbeu Korce attack 1.97 + Luzi 2008 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.84

Luzi 2008 attack 0.97 + Skenderbeu Korce defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Skenderbeu Korce scores more

61%

level

22%

Luzi 2008 scores more

16%

Skenderbeu Korce at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Skenderbeu Korce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff