Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Skenderbeu Korce vs Laci — 1st Division 2019

Skenderbeu Korce
Skenderbeu Korce
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Laci
Laci
R. Gjini 78'
9/26/20251st Division1st Division · Round 5Stadiumi Skënderbeu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Skenderbeu Korce41%
×Draw28%
Laci31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skenderbeu Korce
1.27
Laci
1.08

Skenderbeu Korce creates 18% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 16 away

creates per match

Skenderbeu Korce
1.97
Laci
1.50

allows per match

Skenderbeu Korce
0.67
Laci
0.56

finishing

Skenderbeu Korce+0.00on par
Laci+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skenderbeu Korce ↓

Laci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Skenderbeu Korce or draw
69%
Skenderbeu Korce or Laci
72%
Draw or Laci
59%

Winning margin

Skenderbeu Korce wins by 2+
18%
Laci wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Skenderbeu Korce 1+ goals
72%
Skenderbeu Korce 2+ goals
36%
Skenderbeu Korce 3+ goals
14%
Laci 1+ goals
66%
Laci 2+ goals
29%
Laci 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Skenderbeu Korce (draw refunded)
56%
Laci (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skenderbeu Korce at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.67 · 30 matches

Laci away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skenderbeu Korce attack 1.97 + Laci defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.27

Laci attack 1.50 + Skenderbeu Korce defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Skenderbeu Korce scores more
41%
level
28%
Laci scores more
31%

Skenderbeu Korce at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Skenderbeu Korce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

68'
A. Mjaki
68'
A. Mjaki
78'
R. Gjini
Skenderbeu
Laci
E. Gjoka
Manager: E. Gjoka
F. Moriero
Manager: F. Moriero

Match Recap: Skenderbeu Korce vs Laci

Skenderbeu Korce beat Laci 1-0 in 1st Division on September 26, 2025.

Goals: R. Gjini (78').

The match was played at Stadiumi Skënderbeu in Korçë.