Skenderbeu Korce 0–1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Skenderbeu Korce

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

D. Vuthaj 64'

10/5/2024

Superliga · Round 8Stadiumi Skënderbeu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Skenderbeu Korce30%

×Draw29%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Skenderbeu KorceExpected goals in this matchEgnatia Rrogozhinë

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.19

Skenderbeu Korce

0.96

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

1.19

Egnatia Rrogozhinë creates 24% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 94 away

0.95

creates per match

1.21

1.16

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Skenderbeu Korce

0.95

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

1.21

allows per match

Skenderbeu Korce

1.16

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skenderbeu Korce+0.00on par

Egnatia Rrogozhinë+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skenderbeu Korce ↓

Egnatia Rrogozhinë →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Skenderbeu Korce or draw

59%

Skenderbeu Korce or Egnatia Rrogozhinë

71%

Draw or Egnatia Rrogozhinë

70%

Winning margin

Skenderbeu Korce wins by 2+

11%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Skenderbeu Korce 1+ goals

62%

Skenderbeu Korce 2+ goals

25%

Skenderbeu Korce 3+ goals

7%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1+ goals

70%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2+ goals

33%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Skenderbeu Korce (draw refunded)

42%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skenderbeu Korce at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.16 · 73 matches

Egnatia Rrogozhinë away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.98 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skenderbeu Korce attack 0.95 + Egnatia Rrogozhinë defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.96

Egnatia Rrogozhinë attack 1.21 + Skenderbeu Korce defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Skenderbeu Korce scores more

30%

level

29%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë scores more

41%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Egnatia Rrogozhinë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

Z. Aliyev

44'

Lucho

45+2'

Marcos Ramos← A. Nikaj

46'

M. Yahaya← L. Doukouo

63'

B. Charles

64'

67'

68'

76'

79'

I. Dabjani

81'

F. Dulysse← D. Vuthaj

82'

F. Çuçka← E. Krasniqi

82'

T. Abiodun← D. Janaqi

83'

84'

90+2'

90'

90'

Skenderbeu

Egnatia

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: I. Gvozdenović

45+2'▲Marcos Ramos←▼A. Nikaj

82'▲F. Çuçka←▼E. Krasniqi

82'▲T. Abiodun←▼D. Janaqi

84'▲K. Shaqe←▼A. Gerco

Skenderbeu Korce substitutes

RamosÇuçkaAbiodunShaqeZenullariKamleuRrokuVangjeliPecaniMerlim

Manager: E. Tetova

46'▲M. Yahaya←▼L. Doukouo

81'▲F. Dulysse←▼D. Vuthaj

90'▲D. Wotlai←▼R. Kasa

90'▲R. Lushkja←▼S. Ujka

Egnatia Rrogozhinë substitutes

YahayaDulysseWotlaiLushkjaFangajKukaBakayokoTroshkuDraméMadani

Superliga: Skenderbeu Korce 0–1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Egnatia Rrogozhinë beat Skenderbeu Korce 1-0 in Superliga on October 5, 2024.

Goals: D. Vuthaj (64').

The match was played at Stadiumi Skënderbeu in Korçë.

Skenderbeu Korce vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë — Superliga 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Superliga: Skenderbeu Korce 0–1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë