Skeid 1–3 Start: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Skeid

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Start

B. Rise 39'

M. Grundetjern 90'

E. Schulze 59', 47'

4/5/2025

1. Division · Round 2Nordre Åsen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Skeid32%

×Draw23%

Start45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SkeidExpected goals in this matchStart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.81

Skeid

1.48

Start

1.81

Start creates 22% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 77 away

1.46

creates per match

1.53

2.10

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Skeid

1.46

Start

1.53

allows per match

Skeid

2.10

Start

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skeid+0.00on par

Start+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skeid ↓

Start →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Skeid or draw

55%

Skeid or Start

77%

Draw or Start

68%

Winning margin

Skeid wins by 2+

15%

Start wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Skeid 1+ goals

77%

Skeid 2+ goals

43%

Skeid 3+ goals

19%

Start 1+ goals

84%

Start 2+ goals

54%

Start 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Skeid (draw refunded)

41%

Start (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skeid at home — creates 1.46, concedes 2.10 · 48 matches

Start away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.49 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skeid attack 1.46 + Start defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.48

Start attack 1.53 + Skeid defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Skeid scores more

32%

level

23%

Start scores more

45%

Start at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

B. Rise↳ F. Stensland

47'

E. Schulze

57'

P. Steiring← K. Ghaedamini

58'

P. Steiring

59'

E. Schulze

66'

L. Gausdal← A. E. Nilsen

67'

F. Delaveris← F. Stensland

68'

76'

82'

88'

89'

89'

89'

H. Yusuf← T. Naustdal

89'

O. Jebali← H. Lorentzen

89'

E. Gono← E. Schulze

90'

M. Grundetjern↳ A. Ujkani

Skeid

Start

1

4

13

6

2

11

⚽2

▼

Schulze

10

▼

Mvoue

22

▼

Nilsen

16

Strannega

20

▼

Lorentzen

8

⚽

Grundetje

1

Andersen

11

Bojang

23

▼

Akinyemi

22

Hoyland

5

▼

Ghaedamin

6

▼

Naustdal

15

Hadzic

39

⚽

▼

Rise

33

A

▼

Stensland

16

Odemarksb

10

Andersen

Manager: Vilde Mollestad Rislaa

57'▲P. Steiring←▼K. Ghaedamini

67'▲F. Delaveris←▼F. Stensland

89'▲F. Flo←▼A. Akinyemi

89'▲J. Fiksdal←▼B. Rise

89'▲H. Yusuf←▼T. Naustdal

Skeid substitutes

24Solberg3Flo4Steiring7Fiksdal9Delaveris14Toure17Saad21Lindback8Yusuf

66'▲L. Gausdal←▼A. E. Nilsen

82'▲A. Ujkani←▼S. Mvoue

89'▲O. Jebali←▼H. Lorentzen

89'▲E. Gono←▼E. Schulze

Start substitutes

24Strand-Kolbjornsen3Ujkani5Jebali27Sunday29Gono30Gausdal31Seim

1. Division: Skeid 1–3 Start

Start beat Skeid 3-1 in 1. Division on April 5, 2025.

Goals: B. Rise (39'), E. Schulze (47', 59'), M. Grundetjern (90').

The match was played at Nordre Åsen kunstgress in Oslo.

Skeid vs Start — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: Skeid 1–3 Start