Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Skeid vs Raufoss — 1. Division 2018

Skeid
Skeid
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Raufoss
Raufoss
8/13/20231. Division1. Division · Round 18Nordre Åsen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Skeid39%
×Draw23%
Raufoss38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skeid
1.63
Raufoss
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 113 away

creates per match

Skeid
1.39
Raufoss
1.31

allows per match

Skeid
1.90
Raufoss
1.87

finishing

Skeid+0.00on par
Raufoss+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skeid ↓

Raufoss →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Skeid or draw
62%
Skeid or Raufoss
77%
Draw or Raufoss
61%

Winning margin

Skeid wins by 2+
19%
Raufoss wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Skeid 1+ goals
80%
Skeid 2+ goals
48%
Skeid 3+ goals
22%
Raufoss 1+ goals
80%
Raufoss 2+ goals
47%
Raufoss 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Skeid (draw refunded)
51%
Raufoss (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skeid at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.90 · 61 matches

Raufoss away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.87 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skeid attack 1.39 + Raufoss defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.63

Raufoss attack 1.31 + Skeid defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Skeid scores more
39%
level
23%
Raufoss scores more
38%

Skeid at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Skeid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Skeid 1 – 2 Raufoss

Raufoss beat Skeid 2-1 in 1. Division on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Nordre Åsen kunstgress in Oslo.