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Skeid II vs Skjervøy — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Skeid II
Skeid II
FT
6 – 5
HT: 4 – 3
Skjervøy
Skjervøy
M. Ali Alzubi 79', 29'
D. Lunde 77'
L. Hoyland 45'
I. Eftedal 27'
N. Arsbog 3'
U. R. Celius 90+5' (pen)
M. Kaspersen 86', 22'
O. I. Skalebo 31'
M. Bjorgve 6'
8/26/20233. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 17Nordre Åsen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Skeid II56%
×Draw19%
Skjervøy25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skeid II
2.52
Skjervøy
1.67

Skeid II creates 51% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 46 away

creates per match

Skeid II
2.55
Skjervøy
1.65

allows per match

Skeid II
1.70
Skjervøy
2.50

finishing

Skeid II+0.00on par
Skjervøy+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skeid II ↓

Skjervøy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Skeid II or draw
75%
Skeid II or Skjervøy
81%
Draw or Skjervøy
44%

Winning margin

Skeid II wins by 2+
36%
Skjervøy wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Skeid II 1+ goals
92%
Skeid II 2+ goals
71%
Skeid II 3+ goals
45%
Skjervøy 1+ goals
81%
Skjervøy 2+ goals
50%
Skjervøy 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Skeid II (draw refunded)
69%
Skjervøy (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skeid II at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

Skjervøy away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.50 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skeid II attack 2.55 + Skjervøy defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.52

Skjervøy attack 1.65 + Skeid II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Skeid II scores more
56%
level
19%
Skjervøy scores more
25%

Skeid II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Skeid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
N. Arsbog
6'
M. Bjorgve
22'
M. Kaspersen
27'
I. Eftedal
29'
M. Ali Alzubi
31'
O. I. Skalebo
45'
L. Hoyland
77'
D. Lunde
79'
M. Ali Alzubi
86'
M. Kaspersen
90+5'
U. R. CeliusPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skeid II vs Skjervøy

Skeid II beat Skjervøy 6-5 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on August 26, 2023.

Goals: N. Arsbog (3'), M. Bjorgve (6'), M. Kaspersen (22', 86'), I. Eftedal (27'), M. Ali Alzubi (29', 79'), O. I. Skalebo (31'), L. Hoyland (45'), D. Lunde (77'), U. R. Celius (90+5' pen).

The match was played at Nordre Åsen kunstgress in Oslo.