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Skeid II vs Mjøndalen II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Skeid II
Skeid II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Mjøndalen II
Mjøndalen II
B. Jenssen-Saether 45+2'
D. Lunde 22'
A. Zamani 4'
4/7/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 1Nordre Åsen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Skeid II58%
×Draw18%
Mjøndalen II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skeid II
2.70
Mjøndalen II
1.70

Skeid II creates 59% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Skeid II
1.85
Mjøndalen II
0.85

allows per match

Skeid II
2.54
Mjøndalen II
3.54

finishing

Skeid II+0.00on par
Mjøndalen II+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skeid II ↓

Mjøndalen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Skeid II or draw
76%
Skeid II or Mjøndalen II
82%
Draw or Mjøndalen II
42%

Winning margin

Skeid II wins by 2+
38%
Mjøndalen II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Skeid II 1+ goals
93%
Skeid II 2+ goals
75%
Skeid II 3+ goals
50%
Mjøndalen II 1+ goals
82%
Mjøndalen II 2+ goals
51%
Mjøndalen II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Skeid II (draw refunded)
71%
Mjøndalen II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skeid II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

Mjøndalen II away — creates 0.85, concedes 3.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skeid II attack 1.85 + Mjøndalen II defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 2.70

Mjøndalen II attack 0.85 + Skeid II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Skeid II scores more
58%
level
18%
Mjøndalen II scores more
24%

Skeid II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Skeid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
A. Zamani
22'
D. Lunde
45+2'
B. Jenssen-Saether

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Skeid II 3–0 Mjøndalen II

Skeid II beat Mjøndalen II 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on April 7, 2024.

Goals: A. Zamani (4'), D. Lunde (22'), B. Jenssen-Saether (45+2').

The match was played at Nordre Åsen kunstgress in Oslo.