Skeid II 3–6 Lørenskog: Result & Stats

Skeid II

FT

3 – 6

Lørenskog

4/11/2023

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 1Nordre Åsen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Skeid II41%

×Draw21%

Lørenskog38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Skeid IIExpected goals in this matchLørenskog

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.96

Skeid II

2.06

Lørenskog

1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 26 away

2.55

creates per match

2.23

1.70

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Skeid II

2.55

Lørenskog

2.23

allows per match

Skeid II

1.70

Lørenskog

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skeid II+0.00on par

Lørenskog+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skeid II ↓

Lørenskog →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Skeid II or draw

62%

Skeid II or Lørenskog

79%

Draw or Lørenskog

59%

Winning margin

Skeid II wins by 2+

23%

Lørenskog wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Skeid II 1+ goals

87%

Skeid II 2+ goals

61%

Skeid II 3+ goals

34%

Lørenskog 1+ goals

86%

Lørenskog 2+ goals

58%

Lørenskog 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Skeid II (draw refunded)

52%

Lørenskog (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skeid II at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

Lørenskog away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skeid II attack 2.55 + Lørenskog defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.06

Lørenskog attack 2.23 + Skeid II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Skeid II scores more

41%

level

21%

Lørenskog scores more

38%

Skeid II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Skeid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff