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Skeid II vs Junkeren — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Skeid II
Skeid II
FT
1 – 2
Junkeren
Junkeren
9/4/20213. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 5Nordre Åsen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Skeid II31%
×Draw19%
Junkeren50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skeid II
1.99
Junkeren
2.56

Junkeren creates 29% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 7 away

creates per match

Skeid II
2.55
Junkeren
3.43

allows per match

Skeid II
1.70
Junkeren
1.43

finishing

Skeid II+0.00on par
Junkeren+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skeid II ↓

Junkeren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Skeid II or draw
50%
Skeid II or Junkeren
81%
Draw or Junkeren
69%

Winning margin

Skeid II wins by 2+
16%
Junkeren wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Skeid II 1+ goals
86%
Skeid II 2+ goals
59%
Skeid II 3+ goals
32%
Junkeren 1+ goals
92%
Junkeren 2+ goals
72%
Junkeren 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Skeid II (draw refunded)
38%
Junkeren (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skeid II at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

Junkeren away — creates 3.43, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skeid II attack 2.55 + Junkeren defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.99

Junkeren attack 3.43 + Skeid II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Skeid II scores more
31%
level
19%
Junkeren scores more
50%

Junkeren at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Junkeren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skeid II vs Junkeren

Junkeren beat Skeid II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Nordre Åsen kunstgress in Oslo.