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Skeid II vs Grorud II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Skeid II
Skeid II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Grorud II
Grorud II
C. F. Sveen N. 67'
V. Storsve 45+3' (OG)
F. Finnoy 87'
A. Elhammichi 49'
O. Drammeh 27' (pen)
9/25/20223. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 22Nordre Åsen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Skeid II44%
×Draw20%
Grorud II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skeid II
2.19
Grorud II
1.94

Skeid II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

creates per match

Skeid II
1.92
Grorud II
1.88

allows per match

Skeid II
2.00
Grorud II
2.45

finishing

Skeid II+0.00on par
Grorud II+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skeid II ↓

Grorud II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Skeid II or draw
65%
Skeid II or Grorud II
80%
Draw or Grorud II
56%

Winning margin

Skeid II wins by 2+
26%
Grorud II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Skeid II 1+ goals
89%
Skeid II 2+ goals
64%
Skeid II 3+ goals
37%
Grorud II 1+ goals
86%
Grorud II 2+ goals
58%
Grorud II 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Skeid II (draw refunded)
56%
Grorud II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skeid II at home — creates 1.92, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

Grorud II away — creates 1.88, concedes 2.45 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skeid II attack 1.92 + Grorud II defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.19

Grorud II attack 1.88 + Skeid II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Skeid II scores more
44%
level
20%
Grorud II scores more
35%

Skeid II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Skeid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
O. DrammehPenalty
45+3'
V. StorsveOwn goal
49'
A. Elhammichi
67'
C. F. Sveen N.
87'
F. Finnoy

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skeid II vs Grorud II

Grorud II beat Skeid II 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on September 25, 2022.

Goals: O. Drammeh (27' pen), V. Storsve (45+3' o.g.), A. Elhammichi (49'), C. F. Sveen N. (67'), F. Finnoy (87').

The match was played at Nordre Åsen kunstgress in Oslo.