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Skeid II vs Gamle Oslo — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Skeid II
Skeid II
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Gamle Oslo
Gamle Oslo
E. Hjelde 52'
N. Fjellestad 45'
G. Severinsen 27'
Z. J. Sereba 61'
F. Azemi 22'
F. Hansen 18'
9/1/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 19Nordre Åsen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Skeid II27%
×Draw18%
Gamle Oslo55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skeid II
1.89
Gamle Oslo
2.70

Gamle Oslo creates 43% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Skeid II
1.85
Gamle Oslo
2.85

allows per match

Skeid II
2.54
Gamle Oslo
1.92

finishing

Skeid II+0.00on par
Gamle Oslo+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skeid II ↓

Gamle Oslo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Skeid II or draw
45%
Skeid II or Gamle Oslo
82%
Draw or Gamle Oslo
73%

Winning margin

Skeid II wins by 2+
13%
Gamle Oslo wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Skeid II 1+ goals
85%
Skeid II 2+ goals
56%
Skeid II 3+ goals
29%
Gamle Oslo 1+ goals
93%
Gamle Oslo 2+ goals
75%
Gamle Oslo 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Skeid II (draw refunded)
33%
Gamle Oslo (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skeid II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

Gamle Oslo away — creates 2.85, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skeid II attack 1.85 + Gamle Oslo defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.89

Gamle Oslo attack 2.85 + Skeid II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Skeid II scores more
27%
level
18%
Gamle Oslo scores more
55%

Gamle Oslo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Gamle Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
F. Hansen
22'
F. Azemi
27'
G. Severinsen
45'
N. Fjellestad
52'
E. Hjelde
61'
Z. J. Sereba

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Skeid II vs Gamle Oslo

Skeid II and Gamle Oslo drew 3-3 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on September 1, 2024.

Goals: F. Hansen (18'), F. Azemi (22'), G. Severinsen (27'), N. Fjellestad (45'), E. Hjelde (52'), Z. J. Sereba (61').

The match was played at Nordre Åsen kunstgress in Oslo.