Skeid II 4–0 Fløya: Result & Stats

Skeid II

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Fløya

10/22/2023

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 25Nordre Åsen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Skeid II43%

×Draw21%

Fløya36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Skeid IIExpected goals in this matchFløya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.85

Skeid II

2.04

Fløya

1.85

Skeid II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 39 away

2.55

creates per match

2.00

1.70

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Skeid II

2.55

Fløya

2.00

allows per match

Skeid II

1.70

Fløya

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skeid II+0.00on par

Fløya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skeid II ↓

Fløya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Skeid II or draw

64%

Skeid II or Fløya

79%

Draw or Fløya

57%

Winning margin

Skeid II wins by 2+

24%

Fløya wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Skeid II 1+ goals

87%

Skeid II 2+ goals

60%

Skeid II 3+ goals

33%

Fløya 1+ goals

84%

Fløya 2+ goals

55%

Fløya 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Skeid II (draw refunded)

55%

Fløya (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skeid II at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

Fløya away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.54 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skeid II attack 2.55 + Fløya defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.04

Fløya attack 2.00 + Skeid II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Skeid II scores more

43%

level

21%

Fløya scores more

36%

Skeid II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Skeid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff