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Skeid II vs Finnsnes — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Skeid II
Skeid II
FT
2 – 1
Finnsnes
Finnsnes
10/9/20213. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Girone 6 - 10Nordre Åsen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Skeid II70%
×Draw16%
Finnsnes15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skeid II
2.86
Finnsnes
1.26

Skeid II creates 127% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 6 away

creates per match

Skeid II
2.55
Finnsnes
0.83

allows per match

Skeid II
1.70
Finnsnes
3.17

finishing

Skeid II+0.00on par
Finnsnes+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skeid II ↓

Finnsnes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Skeid II or draw
85%
Skeid II or Finnsnes
84%
Draw or Finnsnes
30%

Winning margin

Skeid II wins by 2+
49%
Finnsnes wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Skeid II 1+ goals
94%
Skeid II 2+ goals
77%
Skeid II 3+ goals
53%
Finnsnes 1+ goals
72%
Finnsnes 2+ goals
36%
Finnsnes 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Skeid II (draw refunded)
83%
Finnsnes (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skeid II at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

Finnsnes away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skeid II attack 2.55 + Finnsnes defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.86

Finnsnes attack 0.83 + Skeid II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Skeid II scores more
70%
level
16%
Finnsnes scores more
15%

Skeid II at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Skeid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Skeid II 2–1 Finnsnes

Skeid II beat Finnsnes 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Nordre Åsen kunstgress in Oslo.