Skegness Town 2–2 Lincoln United: Result & Stats

Skegness Town

2 – 2

Lincoln United

6/26/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Skegness Town44%

×Draw23%

Lincoln United34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Skegness TownExpected goals in this matchLincoln United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.58

Skegness Town

1.83

Lincoln United

1.58

Skegness Town creates 16% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

1.67

1.50

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Skegness Town

1.00

Lincoln United

1.67

allows per match

Skegness Town

1.50

Lincoln United

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skegness Town+0.00on par

Lincoln United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skegness Town ↓

Lincoln United →

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Skegness Town or draw

66%

Skegness Town or Lincoln United

77%

Draw or Lincoln United

56%

Winning margin

Skegness Town wins by 2+

24%

Lincoln United wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Skegness Town 1+ goals

84%

Skegness Town 2+ goals

54%

Skegness Town 3+ goals

28%

Lincoln United 1+ goals

79%

Lincoln United 2+ goals

47%

Lincoln United 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Skegness Town (draw refunded)

57%

Lincoln United (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Skegness Town at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Lincoln United away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Skegness Town attack 1.00 + Lincoln United defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Lincoln United attack 1.67 + Skegness Town defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Skegness Town scores more

44%

level

23%

Lincoln United scores more

34%

Skegness Town at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Skegness Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff