Skaštice 1–7 Strání: Result & Stats

Skaštice

FT

1 – 7

HT: 1 – 1

Strání

3/21/2026

4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Skaštice36%

×Draw23%

Strání41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SkašticeExpected goals in this matchStrání

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.76

Skaštice

1.64

Strání

1.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 54 away

1.72

creates per match

1.56

1.96

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Skaštice

1.72

Strání

1.56

allows per match

Skaštice

1.96

Strání

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skaštice+0.00on par

Strání+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skaštice ↓

Strání →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Skaštice or draw

59%

Skaštice or Strání

77%

Draw or Strání

64%

Winning margin

Skaštice wins by 2+

18%

Strání wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Skaštice 1+ goals

81%

Skaštice 2+ goals

49%

Skaštice 3+ goals

23%

Strání 1+ goals

83%

Strání 2+ goals

52%

Strání 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Skaštice (draw refunded)

47%

Strání (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skaštice at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.96 · 81 matches

Strání away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.56 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skaštice attack 1.72 + Strání defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.64

Strání attack 1.56 + Skaštice defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Skaštice scores more

36%

level

23%

Strání scores more

41%

Strání at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Strání will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff